Expected pandemic-driven employment changes: a comparison of 2019–29 and 2020–30 projection sets

In September 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published its 2019–29 employment projections. Because these projections did not reflect the potential long-term impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, BLS developed alternate 2019–29 projections in early 2021, capturing those impacts for selected industries and occupations. These latter projections, based on two alternate pandemic scenarios (moderate impact and strong impact), were followed (in September 2021) by BLS projections for the 2020–30 decade. The present article compares target-year employment levels across these successive sets of projections, focusing on the industries and occupations identified in the alternate projections and discussing relevant developments associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic triggered significant economic disruption and swift changes in consumer behavior, business operations, and other facets of economic life. To estimate the extent of any pandemic-induced long-term structural changes to the U.S. labor market, the U.S.