Projections overview and highlights, 2021–31

Employment and real output are projected to grow during the 2021–31 decade, reflecting both cyclical recovery from the 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic-induced recession, and structural growth. About one-fourth of the population will be age 65 or older in 2031, contributing to slow projected growth in the labor force and a continued decline in the labor force participation rate. The aging population is also expected to continue to drive strong demand for a variety of healthcare services, with 2.6 million jobs projected to be added in the healthcare and social assistance sector through 2031. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects 0.5-percent annual growth in employment over the 2021–31 decade, slower than the 1.0 percent growth that occurred over the 2011–21 decade.1 This growth reflects recovery from the recession associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and low base-year employment for 2021.