Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

August 4, 2026Letter to the SecretaryDear Mr. Secretary,Since the TBAC last met in early May, the Iran conflict and its effect on energy prices have remained the dominant influence on global markets. After Brent crude peaked near $126 during the spring, a fragile ceasefire and de-escalation pushed prices lower through June, with Brent easing to the low-$70s. Tensions reignited in July, pushing oil higher, though prices remain well below the spring peak. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed below pre-conflict levels, leaving oil sensitive to headlines.Energy market volatility and a firming of conditions have influenced rates markets significantly.